Consultation With a Statistical Expert

8.4.1.5 - Consultation With a Statistical Expert (Rev. 906; Issued: 09-26-19; Effective: 01-02-19; Implementation: 01-02-19) The sampling methodology used in estimations of overpayments must be reviewed and approved by a statistician or by a person with equivalent expertise in probability sampling and estimation methods. This is done to ensure that a statistically appropriate sample is drawn, and that appropriate methods for estimating the overpayments are followed. The contractor shall obtain from the statistical expert a written approval of the methodology for the type of statistical sampling to be performed. Regardless of whether this sampling methodology is applied routinely and repeatedly, each time a sample size calculation or estimation is performed, a detailed methodology (See Section 8.4.7.1.) should be submitted by the statistical expert to the corresponding contractor. Prior to releasing a findings letter or overpayment demand letter, the contractor shall have the statistical expert review the results of the sampling and any other subsequent overpayment estimation or extrapolation. The contractor shall verify that the statistical findings have been reviewed and agreed to by the contractor. If questions or issues arise, the contractor shall also involve the statistical expert. At a minimum, the statistical expert (either on-staff or consultant) shall meet one of the following criteria: • Have significant coursework in probability and estimation methodologies, and at least 10 years of experience applying methods of statistical sampling and interpreting the results. • Possesses a Bachelor’s degree (e.g., B.A., B.S.) in statistics or in some related field (e.g., psychometrics, biostatistics, econometrics, mathematics) with significant coursework in probability and estimation methodologies, and at least 6 years of experience applying methods of statistical sampling and interpreting the results. • Possesses a Master’s degree (e.g., M.A., M.S.) in statistics or in some related field with significant coursework in probability and estimation methodologies, and at least 4 years of experience applying methods of statistical sampling and interpreting the results. • Possess a Doctoral degree in statistics or in some related field with significant coursework in probability and estimation methodologies, and at least 1 year of experience applying methods of statistical sampling and interpreting the results. If the contractor does not have staff with sufficient statistical experience as outlined here, it shall obtain such expert assistance prior to conducting statistical sampling.